Prognosis Without Diagnosis Is Malpractice

You and I would run from any physician who prescribed a cure without first doing a thorough examination.

Yet we get caught up in the "do, action, execution" themes that permeate our businesses. I'm all for getting things done. It would be a good idea if they were the right things.

In business, "prognosis" is the mandatory forecasting that is required to project future needs, revenues, and stock analyst phone conversations. My experience has been that many companies do the best they can. At the same time, people in those organizations want to please their bosses and, as a result, deliver a "healthy" prognosis. What the company needs is an accurate diagnosis in order to behave in the right way. Schmoozing the numbers leads to inaccurate expectations, wrong use of capital and people, and diminished trust in the marketplace and on Wall Street (if you are publicly traded).

Real-Life Example

Prognosis: We can beat our competitors in the European market if we build a state-of-the-art processing facility.

Result: Facility shut down after five years of financial losses and little wear and tear on the machinery.

What was the diagnosis to begin with? There wasn't. Instead, there was a passionate presentation stating that, "If we build it, our competitors' customers will come." They never did. The competitors had the market locked up and anyone at the local coffee shop could have told that to diagnosticians from the incoming company as well as the reasons why.

Managers are the arbiters of organizational health. Their decisions lead to the success or failure of the organization itself. So, the next time a decision or projection of any consequence needs to be made, stop. Take out the managerial stethoscope and ask:

1. What do you want to do?

2. Why do you want to do it?

3. What facts can you show to support it? OK, now show me the data.

4. What are the other options?

5. Would you bet your career on the likelihood of success? (Stated seriously, that can prompt some unbelievably telling non-verbals).

What to think about today: If you are a manager or leader of any group, take time to sharpen and use your diagnostic skills. The prognosis for your organization's health will depend on them.

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Looking forward to speaking to the Delaware Valley HDI association today on How To Be The Manager Your People Want To Work For. Hopefully my high school English teacher won't notice the preposition at the end of the title.

Comments

[Mary Jo Asmus]

Love this Steve. I too find way to much action BEFORE reflection and conversation. This results in a lot of waste. I understand the reasons for it - taking action is so satisfying. And our businesses and organizations, with their quarter-by-quarter mindset have encouraged quick action. We all need to slow down a bit.

Best wishes with your speaking engagement today - even with the final preposition in the title.

[Don Perkins]

Steve

I've seen so much of this in business and it always makes me shake my head in wonder; it's a wonder businesses manage to stay afloat with such poor decision making processes! For some program management has begun to stem the tide, but adds an additional layer of sludge and expense. What your proposing makes good sense. On your last point, this would definitely weed out the dreamers if managers were on the hook for meeting metrics for new projects.

Don F Perkins

http://donfperkins.blogspot.com

[Rodney Johnson]

Steve, unfortunately there is a "if I tell you, I'd have to kill you" mentality that too often surfaces when it comes to strategy research. For instance, we can't do market research because the competition might catch wind of what we're thinking. In essence, we do a head fake, where we commonly are the faker and the fakee.

To attack some of these issues on a proactive, I've started to conduct organizational audits in search of silent problems and the truth. I'm amazed what is found inside the organization with a brief 30 minute conversation. Too many companies underestimate the knowledge of their employees. By simply asking, they will tell you what is really going on.

[Steve]

Hear hear! For some, doing the wrong thing is better than doing nothing. I think the decision to do something will be far better thought out if the "stake your job on the outcome" type of thinking is applyed. My only caution is not to swing the metronome to far the other way and kill off potentially great ideas out of fear of failure.

[Melanie Kissell]

Interesting analogy, Steve! I've been a medical professional for over a quarter of a century and I would have to give you a thumbs up here. A prognosis is what's likely to happen, but not necessarily what will happen -- a guess.timation

It's foolish to concoct a prognosis without first performing all the diagnostics.

[Shawn Murphy]

Thank you for advocating the prognosis "phase" before diagnosing a situation. I've seen managers, leaders, and fellow consultants overly rely on their gut, experiences, and/or large egos and jump immediately to solutions. It's good to have passion about an idea, but as you point out, back it up with data.

[Steve Roesler]

Hi, Mary Jo,

Appreciate the good wishes. It went well, even with the preposition someplace other than where it was supposed to be at:-)

Speed kills; so does prognosis without diagnosis. We are indeed in a time where "fast" seems to trump all else. Which is a bit baffling, since *quality* and *value* are both highly touted but seldom come as a result of warp speed.

[Steve Roesler]

Steve,

I've always liked the question, "Would you bet your job on your decision?"

But you interject a powerful point. If decisions are second-guessed and every "wrong" decision turns into some kind of punitive reaction, nothing of consequence will be brought forth in the future.

Most places with which I work are pretty open about decision making. That is: "Make a good case, roll with it, and if it doesn't work out, it's not because you didn't think it through and we didn't see the merit. Not everything will work all the time."

Thanks for weighing in. . .

[Steve Roesler]

Melanie,

I now feel upgraded, having been anointed by an official medical professional:-)

I don't mind a guesstimate if I'm sneezing and have a fever. I'd really prefer a full diagnostic, though, if I had a headache for three days running.

[Steve Roesler]

Hi, Shawn,

I'm glad you mentioned consultants. I believe our role is to do a solid diagnostic regardless of what a prospective client says on the phone call about the situation. It's the responsible path to take, it adds real value--even if it affirms the client/customer observation--and is the only way to know what action is the right action.

[Steve Roesler]

Hello, Don,

Yes, the program management approach is deliberate but the "sludge and expense" may not be worth it all the time.

There was a period of time that lasted for about, oh, 20 years, when just about every manager in any company of consequence was taught systematic questioning designed to do accurate situation analysis. Recently, I've noticed that what was once considered a "must do" investment in employee development has almost disappeared. That is one area of professional development that gives a measurable payoff; I'm sorry to see it shoved aside and hope that it will be resurrected.

[Steve Roesler]

Rodney, you are on to it. Keep it up.

One of the reasons that I wrote this post was due to a recent similar experience, which is actually quite normal in my line of work. A series of half-hour interviews yielded a depth of truth re: a situation that has plagued a particular organization. Had anyone inside the company kicked back and said, "So, here's what we think is going on, what do you see?", they would have gotten the same information.

That seems to be an approach that is difficult for many organizations to take and has enabled me to put our daughter through college:-)